Understanding Economic Forecasts or Beauty and Business

Understanding Economic Forecasts

Author: David F Hendry

Historically, the theory of forecasting that underpinned actual practice in economics has been based on two key assumptions -- that the model was a good representation of the economy and that the structure of the economy would remain relatively unchanged. In reality, forecast models are mis-specified, the economy is subject to unanticipated shifts, and the failure to make accurate predictions is relatively common.

In the last decade, economists have developed new theories of economic forecasting and additional methods of forecast evaluation that make less stringent assumptions. These theories and methods acknowledge that the economy is dynamic and prone to sudden shifts. They also recognize that forecasting models, however good, are greatly simplified representations that will be incorrect in some respects. One advantage of these newer approaches is that we can now account for the different results of competing forecasts.

In this book, academic specialists, practitioners, and a financial journalist explain these new developments in economic forecasting. The authors discuss how forecasting is conducted, evaluated, reported, and applied by academic, private, and governmental bodies, as well as how forecasting might be taught and what costs are induced by forecast errors. They also describe how econometric models for forecasting are constructed, how properties of forecasting methods can be analyzed, and what the future of economic forecasting may bring.

Interesting book: Let the Flames Begin or Curas de la Cocina Latina

Beauty and Business: Commerce, Gender and Culture in Modern America

Author: Philip Scranton

"Until recently, business historians have not yielded to beauty - at least as a subject of scholarly inquiry. But beauty is big business."
—( Kathy Peiss, from the Introduction )

Beauty seems simple; we know it when we see it. But of course our ideas about what is attractive are influenced by a broad range of social and economic factors, and in Beauty and Business leading historians set out to provide this important cultural context. How have retailers shaped popular consciousness about beauty? And how, in turn, have cultural assumptions influenced the commodification of beauty? The contributors here look to particular examples in order to address these questions, turning their attention to topics ranging from the social role of the African American hair salon, the sexual dynamics of bathing suits and shirtcollars, and the deeper meanings of corsets, to what the Avon lady tells us about changing American values. As a whole, these essays force us to reckon with the ways that beauty has been made, bought, and sold in modern America.

Library Journal

In this scholarly and illuminating work, Scranton (history, Rutgers Univ.; Endless Novelty: Specialty, Production and American Industrialization, 1865-1925) has compiled 12 essays that document the cross-cultural presence of women in the world of business during the 19th and 20th centuries. One common theme is that while women played a key role in business during this time, their presence was clearly overlooked and, in many instances, exploited. Thus, little is known about the African American women entrepreneurs who created an economic niche for themselves by becoming proprietors of thriving beauty shops. The section on "breast prostheses after mastectomy since 1945" asks, "How did a `surgical appliance' that catered to a narrow and specific consumer base evolve into a beauty product?" The book further notes that to get women to purchase certain restricting undergarments, they had to be imbued with the notion that their bodies were flawed. Well-researched notes follow each of three sections: "Images and Reform," "Business and Work," and "Constructing Commodities." Recommended for business historians and upper-division academic libraries with women's studies programs.--Bellinda Wise, Nassau Community Coll. Lib., Garden City, NY Copyright 2000 Cahners Business Information.

Booknews

Historians specializing in business or popular culture in the US focus on the beauty industry, with discussions of images and reforms, business and work, and constructing commodities. In particular, they examine such topics as negotiating gender through sports clothing from 1870 to 1925, postwar beauty culture and working women at Maidenform, the commodification of the Afro 1960-75, and the history of breast prostheses after mastectomy since 1845. The 12 essays combine presentations at a March 1999 conference at Rutgers University and invited studies. The collection launches the series based on the annual conference. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

Table of Contents:

	Preface	1
	Acknowledgments	5
	On Beauty ... and the History of Business	7
	"Any Desired Length": Negotiating Gender through Sports Clothing, 1870-1925	24
	Questionable Beauty: The Dangers and Delights of the Cigarette in American Society, 1880-1930	52
	Collars and Consumers: Changing Images of American Manliness and Business	87
	"Fighting the Corsetless Evil": Shaping Corsets and Culture, 1900-1930	109
	A Depression-Proof Business Strategy: The California Perfume Company's Motivational Literature	142
	"I Had My Own Business ... So I Didn't Have to Worry": Beauty Salons, Beauty Culturists, and the Politics of African-American Female Entrepreneurship	169
	"At the Curve Exchange": Postwar Beauty Culture and Working Women at Maidenform	195
	Estee Lauder: Self-Definition and the Modern Cosmetics Market	217
	Black Is Profitable: The Commodification of the Afro, 1960-1975	254
	"Loveliest Daughter of Our Ancient Cathay!": Representations of Ethnic and Gender Identity in the Miss Chinatown U.S.A. Beauty Pageant	278
	Hiding the Scars: History of Breast Prostheses after Mastectomy Since 1945	309
	Notes on the Contributors	329
	Index	331